The rise of cheap renewable energy
Our World in Data has a comprehensive look at why the cost of renewable energy has decreased so dramatically over the past decade and what it might mean for our ability to combat climate change and build a more equitable energy infrastructure. The 89% drop in the cost of photovoltaic solar is hard to fathom.
The article has a full explanation of the history of photovoltaics, a roughly 70 year journey from powering satellites to the cheapest form of energy on earth. Basically, as we built more solar generating capacity, our understanding increased, we got better at it, making it cheaper, allowing us to build out even more capacity, learn more, and so on in a virtuous cycle.
Even better, energy storage (like batteries) also follow the same learning curve as renewable energy generation; the more we make the cheaper it gets (current battery tech will start to hit some hard limits as we exhaust our supply of, say, lithium, whereas solar energy is essentially limitless. All the more reason to keep researching new storage solutions!)
Fossil fuels don’t have the same virtuous cycle dynamics, however — there’s a hard limit on how cheap, for example, coal can get, and we’re already there. This is even true for natural gas, which has gotten cheaper thanks to an increased supply from fracking, but doesn’t have the same long term virtuous learning cycle we see for solar.
All told this is fantastic news and points to a huge opportunity to build out a more resilient, cleaner, cheaper global energy infrastructure. Another post, also from Our World in Data, broadly outlines the two-fold problem of energy today: 1. a lack of low-carbon sources and 2. a lack of access to any energy. The first is a problem primarily of high-GDP countries1, who have had enough cheap (but dirty) energy to become rich in the first place. The second affects low-GDP countries who haven’t built out the energy infrastructure. The opportunity here is to raise the living standards of countries with low GDPs while moving everyone to renewables.
One last meta, media point: I’ve been spending a lot of time with Our World in Data this past year, specifically their pandemic data sources. What a fantastic site! As they note on their motivations page, there’s a gap between what gets reported on a day-to-day basis and a broader analysis of the massive amount of information that shapes our world. In this instance, the data point about renewables may have provided a suitable peg for a traditional story, but it’s not the kind of story that fits into a typical news cycle. Our World in Data is working to make sure those gaps are filled.
In my first draft, I’d written this as “rich” and “poor” countries, which annoyed me even as I typed it out. “High” or “low-GDP” feels a bit clinical, but it’s more precise, and has the added benefit of bringing less judgmental baggage.
There’s also a judgment I find unhelpful that gets applied the other way — that low-GDP countries are inherently more “authentic” or somesuch, ie if we could all just return to a state that was more in tune with the ebbs and flows of the world, we’d avoid problems like catastrophic global climate change. There’s certainly plenty to lament about the way high-GDP countries operate, from rampant consumerism to obesity, but I generally do think that lifting everyone out of abject poverty is a good thing. ↩︎